Én is a Szabadság téren vagyok!

Well, in fact, I’m on the beach, in Sitges. The weather in Barcelona is especially nice this year, and despite being October, the temperature is the same as in July.

However, I am demonstrating in the Szabadság square, at least my soul is. Just as many Hungarians are finally doing, although it didn’t look like it was going to have any consequence, because the PM is trying to keep its post at any price. But demonstrations have consequences, because people that are showing their disapproval to Gyurcsány’s words are a little bit freer than what they were before and this means that they won’t stay in conformity. I am glad to see that Hungarian society is recovering the freedom and the sense of responsibility that entails. Do not complain any more all day long, do something! That is the point. If you don’t like something, change it, and demonstrations are a way to participate and change things in a democratic society.

Large demonstrations will also have consequences because the people that have showed their disapproval won’t vote for this government anymore. Demonstrations will remain in the mind of the people and memories will come into their minds in the next elections. Some people say: the ones that are demonstrating are the same that voted for the opposition. But this is not true. There are always a lot of hesitant people in between the two main parties, and scandals like this may make them change their opinion. Demonstrations make people think, make people realise that something is wrong, and many of them will come to the conclusion that the PM should resign. I am glad to see that people don’t let themselves convince by Gyurcsány’s big words. I am glad to see that not everyone is so easy to cheat.

I am glad to see how demonstrators themselves took the issue seriously and stopped the hooligans that were using the political issue as a scapegoat for their frustrations. I am glad to see that after the first riots, peaceful demonstrations remained. When someone is demonstrating peacefully, it means that has something to say. If someone is demonstrating violently without any need for it, it means that has nothing to say. And Hungarians understood that and took distance from violent hooligans.

A normal PM should have resigned after the current scandal. But Gyurcsány didn’t, just like George Bush, who didn’t resign after it was discovered that the existence of massive destruction weapons in Iraq was a lie to justify the war. Gyurcsány doesn’t want to resign. But Socialists should have forced him to resign, and they will pay for having not done anything.

Fortunately Gyurcsány will have to resign after the results of the current municipal elections. Demonstrators are therefore lucky, because the municipal ballots will allow a more immediate success of their demonstrations. Without these elections, Gyurcsány could have probably stayed in power trying to rule the country (without success) and the Socialists would have surely lost the next legislative elections. But now the Socialists will have to get rid of Gyurcsány as soon as possible. It is their only chance to overcome the current crisis, try to rule the country during the next years and have some chances in the next elections. There is no other possibility for them. They have already lost a lot of posts in the city councils (a lot of Socialist politicians will lose their salary) due to Gyurcsány clumsiness and obstinacy, to his lack of ability to admit a defeat. He has damaged the Socialists enough and they won’t let him continue. His rivals within the party will have facts to base their criticism on, and with the defeat in the municipal elections he will have much more rivals than he had yesterday, many fellows angry because they lost their seats.

He says he is the only one that can save Hungary. What a vanity! Nothing more far from reality! He is just a member of a team. He is the leader, but only thanks to the support of the Parliament. He was part of an electoral list (yes, in the top position) and the Parliament can remove him whenever they want. Someone else could substitute him, probably maintaining the same team and project. He is already burnt-out, he has lost legitimacy because he hasn’t got the support of the country anymore and without support he can’t rule. It is not true, that he is the only existing leader. He and Orbán are the only ones not eligible to the post.

My analysis of the situation is the following:
- Gyurcsány and his team try to impose a reform in the Government and the institutions. As in any reform process, some people within the party oppose. He makes that clumsy speech to show his power and gain support among his colleagues.
- Some of the members of his party, probably the ones whose post could be threatened by the reform, leak the speech to the press to get rid of Gyurcsány. They want to maintain their posts, their influence, or even gain more power. The PM is betrayed by his enemies in the party.
- Gyurcsány doesn’t want to give up. He has enough support from his party to try to maintain his position. The reform is necessary. The Socialists (and their SZDSZ partners) that want the reform fear that without Gyurcsány they won’t have enough power to go ahead with the reform. They fear that internal opposition won’t let them carry out the reform. Without Gyurcsány, a battle within the Socialist party could jeopardize the reforms. They don’t realise that it is too late for Gyurcsány and that another solution should be found. They try to gain time. The PM hopes that people will accept the situation, go back to their homes and continue complaining without doing anything.
- The Socialists probably thought that Gyurcsány should continue with the unpopular reform program, get totally burnt-out and then one or two years before the next elections, substitute him by someone new (not disgraced by the unpopularity of the reforms). As they did with Medgyessy, and as they have been doing in the Barcelona’s city council during the last 10 years (which I believe it is not very democratic). This way, the unpopular (and necessary) reform program would only burn-out one socialist leader (Gyurcsány), and the party would prepare the next leader, removing Gyurcsány from his post one year before the elections in order to finally close the current crisis and to catapult a new politician towards the victory, ‘clean’ from the stain of this issue or the unpopularity of the reform.
-The results of the municipal elections (very predictable in a country with normal people) don’t give the Socialists any other chance than making Gyurcsány resign.

What should have been done:
- After the scandal of Gyurcsány’s statements, the MSZP and SZDSZ should have made the PM resign and should have appointed a new PM to carry out the reforms. They should have listened to the people, accept the situation and replace the fallen leader. With the change, the people would have calmed down and the new person would have enough legitimacy to rule the country. Gyrucsány, after his speech, his attitude and his lack of support won’t be able to rule the country, especially when there are some difficult reforms to be carried out. During difficult times, if the Government doesn’t have the support of the people, it is impossible to do anything. People won’t make any effort or sacrifice if they don’t believe in their leader. With a negative attitude and atmosphere in the country, the economy won’t take up.

- An alternative would have been a motion of confidence, right after the first week of demonstrations, but now it is too late.

Gyurcsány’s unforgivable mistakes:
- First of all, his speech. Even if the meaning of the speech was not wrong, there are expressions that can’t be used. It is not the same saying ‘I stole your pen but then I regretted it and gave it back’, or saying ‘I borrowed it and then I gave it back’. One politician can say that he made mistakes, or that he made bad decisions and policies, or that he didn’t carry the necessary reforms because the people wasn’t ready for them, but can’t say that he lied about the economic figures. He can say he showed the figures from a positive angle, but he can’t admit that he told lies. Words matter and admitting immorality (lies) is enough for people to remove their confidence from the politician. He admitted voluntarily having lied to the people, having cheated them to get their ballots, and this is unacceptable, he has lost the confidence of many people.
- Later, he was wrong presenting himself as a hero, as the only savour of the country. He should have admitted his mistake from the beginning. He shouldn’t have asked for people’s help. He is there to help the country, to rule it, not to save it. He is not indispensable, he is at the hands of the voters, who decide which candidate they want.
-He should have resigned after the demonstrations didn’t stop, or at least made a motion of confidence in the Parliament.
The incapability of the government to face the situation and to remove Gyurcsány from the power has made the MSZP lost the municipal elections and will probably drag the case until the next legislative elections. There is no need to make new elections now, but it is necessary to remove the PM and chose another Socialist of the same team. The country needs a reform, but the people need a leader that doesn’t appear to lie from time to time, someone they can trust.

The MSZP, SZDSZ and many Hungarians may be defending Gyurcsány as a way to counterattack the offensive of the right wing. They are building a bastion around the PM in order to repeal FIDESZ’ attacks. However, they don’t realise that they shouldn’t be repealing FIDESZ’ attacks but looking for an appropriate and original solution to the crisis, even if it agrees in some point with FIDESZ’ will. Hungarian society is very much divided and some cultural (almost racial) issues are mixed in that division, issues that come from the World War II. I think that a mature mind should understand that rejecting the right wing doesn’t mean doing always the contrary, and that they should admit that Gyurcsány made a big mistake and he is not appropriate anymore to rule the country. This doesn’t mean giving in before the right wing, it means looking for solutions to the current situation and having the maturity to make ones own decision, although it seems similar to right wing’s.

As they say, ignorance is brave. Taking into account the place where I am living (Barcelona), this might be a good example.